XSI® US
A waiting game before lower priced contracts hit the XSI® in May next year
The sub-index for US imports fell 3.4% to 186.8 points in October – but it feels like a waiting game for the big market swings in May next year when new lower priced contracts come into effect.
Capacity management – the key focus for carriers – has been more successful on the transpacific than other major trades with spot rates down by ‘only’ 18.2% from last year.
This is considerably lower than witnessed on the Far East to US East Coast, Mediterranean and North Europe, which are down by between 55.9% and 78.1% compared to the end of October last year.
This is despite volumes from the Far East to the US falling considerably more than global volumes, or even volumes from the Far East to Europe.
The XSI® sub-index for US exports fell by 1.2% to 131.6 points in October. It is now 19.7% lower than a year ago, which is the smallest year-on-year drop across the XSI® indices. All other indices have fallen by at least 50% from October 2022.
This isn’t testament to a robustness in US exports, but rather that rates never rose as high as they did in other regions – meaning they had less far to fall to their current level.
The bigger problem for US exporters back then was equipment availability with carriers preferring to rush containers back to the Far East for higher rates, rather than wait for them to be filled with exports at low rates on the back haul.
