112% YoY
The global XSI® rose again in July to 435.2 points, This marks the fifth month in a row that it has hit a new record high.
▶︎ Global Index
▶︎ Far East Indices (Import/Export)
▶︎ Europe Indices (Import/Export)
▶︎ US Indices (Import/Export)
The global XSI® rose again in July to 435.2 points, This marks the fifth month in a row that it has hit a new record high.
Compared to a year ago the global index, which includes all valid long term contracts, is up by 112%, and compared to July 2019 it is up by 280%.
It is, however, the slowest month-on-month increase since January, as rates for new long term contracts across many of the major trades appear to have peaked.
XSI ® - Europe Imports / Exports
European imports on the XSI® also continued to grow, but at a much slower rate than in the past five months.
The index rose by 1.9% in July, reaching a yet-another record high of 439.26 points. Compared to the end of 2021, this is a 62% increase.
The exports index rose month-on-month by 3.9% to 368.53 points. This brings the year-to-date growth in the index to 92%.
The slowing growth of the index demonstrates that newly signed contracts are holding at the current rate levels and are expected to remain at the current high level for the coming months.
XSI ® Europe
Upwards pressure on long-term rates has eased as spot rates and volumes on major trades come down. In the first five months of the year, European containerized imports are down by 3%, while European exports have fallen 6% from 2021.
Despite falling volumes, ports in Europe are still facing delays. A series of strikes by German port workers have severely limited port operations in the major North German ports.
Elsewhere congested ports, dealing with hinterland problems and staff holidays are also causing delays for shippers.
XSI ® - Far East Imports / Exports
The Far East export index rose 2% in July to 618.03 points. It’s another index recording a slowdown in the month-on-month index growth yet still posting a new record high.
The index is up by 150% compared to a year ago and by 85% since the end of 2021.
On the import side, the XSI® index rose to 220.68 points in July, 1.1% higher than the last month. This index has risen by 53% from July 2021 and 35% from the end of 2021.
The latest GDP numbers out of China, showing just 0.4% growth compared to Q2 2021 and a 2.6% decline from Q1 2022, highlight the effects of the worst COVID outbreak in China since Q1 2020 and the resulting lockdowns.
After three months of m-o-m declines, China’s manufacturing PMI registered a slight increase in June, reading 50.2.
The index for new export orders is now declining at a slower pace but is still below 50.
XSI ® - US Imports / Exports
The XSI® index for US imports rose by 5.9% to 533.39 points. This is up 173% from July 2021, but a considerably smaller increase than just two months ago, when the index rose by 65% month-on-month.
A slower index growth reflects stable contract rates and tender seasonality as only a few contracts with lower rates are left from H1 2021.
On the export side, the index rose by 5% to 140.69 points, the only XSI® index to have seen higher growth in July than in June. It is also the only index not to have passed 150 points at any time.
US exports have declined considerably compared to the pre-pandemic level, with the ratio of loaded imports to loaded exports to the US rising from 1.9 in 2019 to 2.5 in the first five months of 2022.
US ports continue to pose big problems for shippers, despite volumes falling. Truck drivers slowed operations in Oakland, a port that was already performing poorly. President Biden announced an emergency board in an attempt to find solutions to a long dispute between rail carriers and unions.
Negotiations are also continuing between unions and terminals on the US West Coast. The previous deal ran out at the start of July, and the threat of disruptions remains real as long as talks continue.
