Q2 2024
DEMAND
Carriers’ high demand for tonnage will continue as long as container ships on the world’s deep-sea trades continue to divert around Africa.
In the first four months of 2024 the average distance moved by a container is 9.3% higher than it was in 2023. This means that, when measured in TEU-miles (volume*distance), there is 18.3% more work for container ships to do at the start of this year compared to the first four months of 2023.
This is partly due to longer sailing distances, but even when measured purely in the number of containers moved, global demand has increased by 8.2% in the first four months of 2024 compared to the same period in 2023.
58.2m TEU were moved in January to April 2024 - an all-time record for the first four months of the year - though not by much, as volumes in the first four months of 2021 were only 41 000 TEU lower.
The biggest driver of growth has been exports out of the Far East, with outbound volumes 2.4m TEU higher than in the first four months of 2023 (+13.8%).
China has driven this growth, exporting 2.2m TEU more this year compared to the same period in 2023. North Asia and South East Asia have grown exports by 0.2m and 0.6m TEU respectively.
In volume terms, the biggest year-on-year increase has been exports from China to the rest of the Far East, already the biggest trade out of China by quite a margin.
Exports are up by 543 000 TEU, reaching 5.9m TEU between January and April 2024. This is more than 2m TEU higher than exports to North America which is the second largest destination for Chinese exports, having (once again) overtaken Europe. Chinese exports to North America have increased by 496 500 TEU in the first four months of 2024 compared to 2023.
However, the big drop in volumes to the US last year still leaves Chinese exports to North America considerably lower than they were in 2022. In the first four months of that year exports stood at 3.7m TEU, compared to 3.2m TEU this year.
Australasia is the only other region where, despite 19.9% growth so far this year, volumes from China have not reached record highs.
All other regions are posting new highs, with the highest growth coming into the Indian Subcontinent and the Middle East where volumes have grown by 27.7%.
Volumes of reefer containers have increased by 5.9% with 4.4m TEU moved in the first four months of 2024.
The biggest exporter, South and Central America has grown exports by 1.0% bringing the total to 1.2m TEU.
However, there is a split, with exports from the West Coast (the biggest exporter in the region) falling by 5.9%, while exports from Central America and East Coast South America have risen by 5.1% and 8.2% respectively.
The global picture for reefer exports is also mixed, with exports out of the Far East growing by 18.5%.
In contrast, exports out of the Indian subcontinent and Middle East are down by 9.1%.
Exports out of Europe and North America have been flat, up by 0.1% and 0.5% respectively in the first four months of the year compared to the same period in 2023.
